Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought
Release of working paper: Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought:
2012 and the case for better modeling
The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States and cast a harsh light on the need for better analytic tools and a comprehensive approach to predicting and preparing for the effects of extreme weather on agriculture.
In response to this need RDCEP and AgMIP researchers have released a working paper as an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 US maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution multi-scale predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis.
You can download a pdf of the working paper at SSRN.