Global Economic Modeling Phase 2 Planning Meeting: JRC/IPTS, Seville, Spain, March 10-11, 2014

The AgMIP GlobEcon team met in Seville, Spain March 10-11, 2014 to discuss further plans and next steps for enhanced model intercomparisons, following the successful Phase 1 which resulted in a Special Issue in the journal Agricultural Economics (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12093/abstract) and a joint paper in PNAS (http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3274). Participants in the workshop included the 10 global economic modeling groups who had contributed to Phase 1, but also 6 new groups who are interested in joining the process in the next phase. The workshop was primarily funded upon invitation by JRC-IPTS in Seville, which was gratefully acknowledged by the whole group as an important support of AgMIP.

Various topics for further analyses were discussed, ranging from technical aspects related to model parameter comparison and model improvement, to the development and assessment of global representative agricultural pathways (RAPs). Data management, overall process improvement, and the interaction between crop modelers and economic modelers were also covered.

As a result, several task forces were set up to take the lead for separate topics. A more technical model comparison with a focus on key elasticities will be accompanied by specific analyses on land use change, livestock, and trade, based on initial work in Phase 1. Global RAP storylines will be developed and implemented in the models, based on previous work on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) in the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. Separate task forces will take the lead with data management regarding model inputs and outputs, as well as funding options for the GlobEcon group.

As a first step in Phase 2, a sub-group will contribute to a USDA report on climate change impacts and food security. The next meeting for the whole GlobEcon team is planned in Fall 2014.

Contact: Hermann Lotze-Campen, PIK lotze-campen@pik-potsdam.de
Contact: Keith Wiebe, IFPRI k.wiebe@cgiar.org