Around 25 members and partners of the AgMIP Global Economics team met in Washington DC in November 2014, immediately following the meetings of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) and the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC). The purpose of the meeting was to share updates on recent work by the various participating modeling groups and plan future work. The meeting was hosted by IFPRI and supported by funds from the US Department of Agriculture through a contract with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). (more…)
By Jenna Famular
Changes in climate and extreme events could have significant effects on agricultural pest and disease distribution and magnitudes and on the distribution of host species. In response to the need to include modeling of pests and disease in agricultural assessments, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) held a workshop in Gainesville, Florida February 23-25, 2015 with over 70 attendees.(more…)
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) agricultural systems must increase production 60 percent by 2050 to meet the nutritional needs of a world population of 9 billion. However, agriculture systems will also be impacted by climate change and decision-makers will need to incorporate both mitigation and adaptation strategies into their planning to insure a food secure future for their people. In order to address these interrelated challenges of food security, FAO initiated the concept of Climate-Smart agriculture in 2010. Climate-Smart agriculture promotes production systems that sustainably increase productivity, improve resilience via adaptation, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions via mitigation, and enhance achievements of national food security and development goals. (more…)
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and The Group on Earth Observation Global Agricultural Monitoring Initiative (GEOGLAM) recently initiated a collaboration to share methods, data, and outputs with a particular focus on the development of near-term, in-season crop projections. In March of 2015 GEOGLAM and AgMIP came together at a joint workshop, “Integrating Earth Observation with Models to Forecast Within Season Crop Production at Multiple Scales”, in Beltsville, Maryland. The workshop was organized with the purpose of examining ways to improve within-season crop production forecasts on a range of spatial scales from local sites and geographic regions, to a global scale.GEOGLAM was launched in 2011 in Paris by the Group of 20 Agriculture Ministers with a purpose to “strengthen global agricultural monitoring by improving the use of remote sensing tools for crop production projections and weather forecasting.” GEOGLAM is a world leader in remote sensing and near-real-time monitoring of agricultural crop conditions. They provide coordinated observations of the earth from satellites and integrates these observations with land-based and site-specific measurements in order to generate accurate and up to date crop monitoring information and yield forecasts. (more…)
By Jenna Famular
Evaluating global crop productivity is important in understanding the impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies. In 2012 and 2013 The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) worked with the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to simulate crop productivity. This project catalyzed the creation of the Ag-GRID and Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) projects that focus on providing comprehensive evaluation of models via comparisons of simulations and observed data. (more…)
By Jenna Famular
A recent article “An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change” published in Science of the Total Environment applied AgMIP regional integrative assessment tools to study the spatial yield variations in groundnut yields. The study aimed to quantify spatial variability in groundnut yields under current climate scenarios and future climate scenarios affected by climate change in India. Another goal of the study was to provide strategies of cultivar, water and fertilizer application that can enhance production as well as possible strategies for reducing investment inputs in groundnut production in climate change conditions.(more…)
Agricultural system models provide predictive and assessment capability to a wide range of decision-makers in the private and public sectors. However, despite extensive research to improve agricultural models, many of the models used today are the result of investments made 30-40 years ago, and do not incorporate the major advances in data, information, and communication technology achieved in the past decade. Further, it is increasingly understood that model outputs do not, in and of themselves, constitute decision support systems.(more…)
A recent paper in Nature of Climate Change, “Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production” Asseng et al., discusses the systematic testing of wheat crop models, utilized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), against field experiments. The testing was conducted because simulations have a large amount of uncertainty in yield projections due to changes in temperature. Results showed that crop models were accurate between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius, but above 22 degrees Celsius, the uncertainty in the model increased. Wheat appears to be less affected by average temperature and more affected by fluctuations in seasonality, illustrating that the timing of warmer and cooler weather in the growing season has a large impact on grain yield. (more…)
by Niina Heikkinen, E&E reporter
With a global population on track to exceed 9 billion by the middle of the century and climate change altering growing conditions across the planet, the need to figure out if agricultural production will keep pace is becoming more urgent, leading agricultural economists say.
In a panel discussion held yesterday by the nonprofit organization Resources for the Future, representatives from the World Bank, the Department of Agriculture and academia said government agencies are collaborating with researchers and local officials to predict the economic risks that climate change poses to farming households around the world.
Finding a way to quantify those economic risks is a complex challenge because of the amount of information that has to go into modeling future crop yields, said Elizabeth Marshall, an economist for USDA’s Economic Research Service.
A new Canola Initiative has just been launched on the AgMIP website. Canola (rapeseed) has become a major crop for production of edible oil around the world, and plays an essential role for international food security. (more…)