A recent paper in Nature of Climate Change, “Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production” Asseng et al., discusses the systematic testing of wheat crop models, utilized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), against field experiments. The testing was conducted because simulations have a large amount of uncertainty in yield projections due to changes in temperature. Results showed that crop models were accurate between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius, but above 22 degrees Celsius, the uncertainty in the model increased. Wheat appears to be less affected by average temperature and more affected by fluctuations in seasonality, illustrating that the timing of warmer and cooler weather in the growing season has a large impact on grain yield. (more…)
by Niina Heikkinen, E&E reporter
With a global population on track to exceed 9 billion by the middle of the century and climate change altering growing conditions across the planet, the need to figure out if agricultural production will keep pace is becoming more urgent, leading agricultural economists say.
In a panel discussion held yesterday by the nonprofit organization Resources for the Future, representatives from the World Bank, the Department of Agriculture and academia said government agencies are collaborating with researchers and local officials to predict the economic risks that climate change poses to farming households around the world.
Finding a way to quantify those economic risks is a complex challenge because of the amount of information that has to go into modeling future crop yields, said Elizabeth Marshall, an economist for USDA’s Economic Research Service.
A new Canola Initiative has just been launched on the AgMIP website. Canola (rapeseed) has become a major crop for production of edible oil around the world, and plays an essential role for international food security. (more…)
This video is produced for the Biosphere Defense Project, hosted by the International Institute of Climate Action and Theory (IICAT) at the University of California. It features footage of interviews with researchers from the CLIP (Crop Livestock Intensification Project) team of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (agmip.org). The video explores issues related to climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and livestock farming in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique and the imperatives for change; highlighting opportunities to reduce risk and increase resilience in Southern Africa. (more…)
The AgMIP GlobEcon team met in Seville, Spain March 10-11, 2014 to discuss further plans and next steps for enhanced model intercomparisons, following the successful Phase 1 which resulted in a Special Issue in the journal Agricultural Economics (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12093/abstract) and a joint paper in PNAS (http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3274). Participants in the workshop included the 10 global economic modeling groups who had contributed to Phase 1, but also 6 new groups who are interested in joining the process in the next phase. The workshop was primarily funded upon invitation by JRC-IPTS in Seville, which was gratefully acknowledged by the whole group as an important support of AgMIP. (more…)
Five global economic modeling groups met June 23-24, 2014 at FAO headquarters in Rome to discuss preliminary results of a harmonized analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security in 2050. The participating modeling groups, all members of the AgMIP Global Economics team, are from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), LEI Wageningen UR in the Netherlands, and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS). The Institute for Development Studies at the University of Sussex is also contributing. This work is supported by funds from the US Department of Agriculture through a contract with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), and by the participating institutions and other donors. (more…)
By Jenna Famular
Two recent stakeholder meetings in Pretoria, and Malawi were held by AgMIP Southern Africa teams to engage local stakeholders and inform them about research being conducted in Southern Africa. Local stakeholders, such as decision- and policy-makers, are the end-users of AgMIP research outputs as they seek to form effective agricultural policies based on scientific knowledge of possible future impacts of climate change on local economies. (more…)
By Jenna Famular
AgMIP, in a recent collaboration with the Geospatial Building Blocks project (GABBs), is developing a geospatial mapping tool to project future climate change scenarios and impacts. The GABBs project will create a web-based system that shares geospatial data that can be used via tools such as AgMIP’s that present the data in a way that projects global issues and concerns.(more…)
By Jenna FamularThe American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CCSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) will host more than 4,000 scientists, professionals, educators, and students at the 2014 International Annual Meetings, “Grand Challenges – Great Solutions,” November 2-5, 2014, in Long Beach, CA. The events will take place primarily at the Long Beach Convention Center and the Hyatt Regency Long Beach Hotel.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has launched a new website dedicated to climate change and food policy research and impacts. The website covers news, event updates, project profiles, and shares related materials from across their climate change research portfolio, including results from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and AgMIP. (more…)