Eastern Africa

Impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems in Eastern Africa while enhancing the region’s capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to future changes in climate

The overall goal of the project is to conduct a systematic, comprehensive, and quantitative assessment of impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural systems that explicitly address the farm, local, national, and regional level impacts and identifies adaptation options with due consideration to the interactions between the key variables of climate, crop, and socio-economics in Eastern Africa. Operating from within the framework of the AgMIP global project, it works toward establishing country and regional teams with climate, crop and economic modelers and IT experts, enhancing their skills in the use and application of new science tools and conducting comprehensive assessment of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options, applying cutting-edge science and interdisciplinary knowledge.

Teams of climate, crop, and economic modelers in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are assessing the impact of climate change on important crops utilizing the AgMIP Protocols (Fig.). The project utilizes climate, crop and economic data to calibrate and validate models across a wide range of conditions for Eastern Africa. The integrated analysis of model results will enable systematic assessment of variable and changing climate on agricultural systems. Knowledge of likely climate impacts enables decision-makers to consider options for managing negative impacts and for capitalizing on favorable conditions.

The AgMIP Eastern Africa Project is coordinated by Dr. K.P.C Rao, Principal Scientist of ICRISAT–Nairobi, with assistance from Dr. M. Tenywa of Makerere University,Uganda.Key research staff include Drs. B.Wafula, ofKenya Agriculture Research Institute; E. Mpeta of Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania; and, A.A. Berhe of Mekelle University, Ethiopia.

In addition to in-country research, regular exchange of information will occur between country teams through training activities aimed to enhance skills needed to undertake the work. This includes hands-on sessions in data assessment and management, use of models and other tools, and write-up of results. It also includes training on methods for regional integrated assessments utilizing information from climate, crop, and economic models.