PIK: Talk by David Karoly “Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Some recent examples from Australia”

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12:00 pm - 3:00 pm
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Telegraphenberg A 31

Extreme weather and climate events have the greatest impacts on society and on ecosystems, and their occurrence is influenced by natural climate variability and possibly by climate change. A brief review will be presented of approaches to the attribution of extreme climate events to different causes, including anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variations such as El NiƱo events. Some recent examples of extreme climate events in Australia, including the 2011-2012 extreme rainfall, the 2012-2013 extreme summer temperature and the new record annual Australian average temperature for 2013, will be considered as attribution case studies. These examples illustrate some different methods and different confidence levels that can result for different extreme events.

The recently launched citizen science project weather@home ANZ will also be discussed as a way to generate very large ensembles of simulated regional daily weather data needed for the attribution of extreme events.