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C3MP mobilizes international crop modelers for a coordinated investigation of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts on agriculture.
Motivation: Collaborations among crop modelers with expertise at specific modeling sites can provide new
estimates of how agricultural production will be impacted by climate change and can help assess how consistent
these estimates are across climate and crop models. The results from C3MP will also contribute to wider assessments
undertaken by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).
Objective: C3MP aims to improve understanding of the impact of climate change on future agricultural production by utilizing site-calibrated crop models to coordinate projections of crop response under probabilistic climate change scenarios.
Participation Procedures and Products:
- Crop modelers are invited to run a set of common climate sensitivity experiments, provided by C3MP
coordinators, at sites where their models are already-calibrated and detailed weather, cultivar, management and soil information are available.
- Should weather information not be available, the C3MP Coordinators will provide a bias-adjusted MERRA Reanalysis weather timeseries corresponding to the site.
Modelers submit results via a provided template to the C3MP Coordination team. The archived results are vetted and fit with an emulator to estimate yield response surfaces (Figure 1). These response surfaces may then be used to analyze the impacts
of projected climate changes, beginning with the CMIP5 GCMs (Figure 2).
Products for each site and crop include probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts and the evaluation of key agro-climatic vulnerabilities. By coordinating these experiments, the C3MP community will also be able to produce regional and global maps of key climate impact metrics and indicators. C3MP results will contribute to high-impact publications and data products.
Coordination: C3MP will be led out of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. Participants will have access to all datasets and analyses to enable individual and collaborative studies within the C3MP network of modelers.
Updated Timeline: Crop model results submitted before August 15th, 2013, will be presented at the AgMIP Global Workshop in New York City, October 28th-31st, 2013. We are still encouraging registrations and submissions, and results submitted by December 31st, 2013, will be included in the main journal articles to be written in the next six months. For more information or to submit results, please contact C3MP Coordination at firstname.lastname@example.org.
To register to participate in C3MP, please click here.
For additional questions, please contact Alex Ruane, Sonali McDermid and Cynthia Rosenzweig